中文引用：
陈冲、胡竞天：《空间依赖与武装冲突预测》，载《国际政治科学》，2022年第2期，第86-123页。

复制数据：https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/BKKMA2

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本复制复数文件包括4个文件夹。运行所有代码前，请设置工作工作路径

Code: 文章所有图表和分析代码，请按照以下顺序运行代码
	1_figures 2-4_Table_1 .R： 产生图2， 图3， 图4和表-1的代码
	2_modeling.R： 模型代码
        3_table3_Figure5.R：产生表-3和图5的代码
        4_table4.R：产生表-4的代码
        5_Table5.R：产生表-5的代码


Data：文章图表和模型所需所有数据

figs: 储存文章图表文件夹

Results：储存文章所有分析结果数据（注意，文章模型运行时间较长，可以直接利用本文件夹数据）

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> sessionInfo()R version 4.0.2 (2020-06-22)Platform: x86_64-apple-darwin17.0 (64-bit)Running under: macOS Mojave 10.14.6Matrix products: defaultBLAS:   /System/Library/Frameworks/Accelerate.framework/Versions/A/Frameworks/vecLib.framework/Versions/A/libBLAS.dylibLAPACK: /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/4.0/Resources/lib/libRlapack.dyliblocale:[1] en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/C/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8attached base packages:[1] stats     graphics  grDevices utils     datasets  methods   base     other attached packages: [1] forcats_0.5.1      stringr_1.4.0      purrr_0.3.4        readr_1.4.0        tibble_3.1.0       tidyverse_1.3.0    ggrepel_0.9.1      [8] cshapes_0.6        plyr_1.8.6         maptools_1.1-1     tidyr_1.1.2        caTools_1.18.0     ROCR_1.0-11        lubridate_1.7.9   [15] countrycode_1.2.0  xtable_1.8-4       magrittr_2.0.1     spduration_0.17.1  EBMAforecast_1.0.2 stargazer_5.2.2    showtext_0.9      [22] showtextdb_3.0     sysfonts_0.8.1     ggplot2_3.3.3      tmap_3.3-1         raster_3.4-5       sf_0.9-8           sp_1.4-5          [29] dplyr_1.0.3       loaded via a namespace (and not attached):  [1] leafem_0.1.3        colorspace_2.0-0    ellipsis_0.3.1      class_7.3-17        leaflet_2.0.3       rgdal_1.5-16         [7] htmlTable_2.0.1     fs_1.5.0            base64enc_0.1-3     dichromat_2.0-0     rstudioapi_0.13     farver_2.1.0        [13] fansi_0.4.2         xml2_1.3.3          codetools_0.2-16    splines_4.0.2       knitr_1.31          jsonlite_1.7.2      [19] Formula_1.2-3       tmaptools_3.1       broom_0.7.3         cluster_2.1.0       dbplyr_2.1.0        png_0.1-7           [25] rgeos_0.5-3         httr_1.4.2          compiler_4.0.2      backports_1.2.1     assertthat_0.2.1    Matrix_1.2-18       [31] cli_2.3.1           htmltools_0.5.0     tools_4.0.2         separationplot_1.3  gtable_0.3.0        glue_1.4.2          [37] Rcpp_1.0.7          cellranger_1.1.0    fracdiff_1.5-1      vctrs_0.3.6         urca_1.3-0          nlme_3.1-148        [43] leafsync_0.1.0      crosstalk_1.1.0.1   lmtest_0.9-38       timeDate_3043.102   lwgeom_0.2-5        xfun_0.20           [49] rvest_0.3.6         lifecycle_1.0.0     XML_3.99-0.8        MASS_7.3-51.6       zoo_1.8-8           scales_1.1.1        [55] hms_1.0.0           parallel_4.0.2      RColorBrewer_1.1-2  yaml_2.2.1          quantmod_0.4.17     curl_4.3            [61] gridExtra_2.3       rpart_4.1-15        latticeExtra_0.6-29 stringi_1.5.3       tseries_0.10-47     e1071_1.7-3         [67] checkmate_2.0.0     TTR_0.24.2          rlang_0.4.10        pkgconfig_2.0.3     bitops_1.0-6        lattice_0.20-41     [73] htmlwidgets_1.5.2   labeling_0.4.2      tidyselect_1.1.0    R6_2.5.0            generics_0.1.0      Hmisc_4.4-1         [79] DBI_1.1.0           haven_2.3.1         pillar_1.5.1        foreign_0.8-80      withr_2.4.1         mgcv_1.8-31         [85] units_0.6-7         stars_0.5-2         xts_0.12-0          survival_3.2-7      abind_1.4-5         nnet_7.3-14         [91] modelr_0.1.8        crayon_1.4.1        KernSmooth_2.23-17  utf8_1.2.1          jpeg_0.1-8.1        readxl_1.3.1        [97] grid_4.0.2          data.table_1.13.6   reprex_0.3.0        forecast_8.13       digest_0.6.27       classInt_0.4-3     [103] munsell_0.5.0       viridisLite_0.3.0   quadprog_1.5-8     